What does Lando’s Miami win mean for his card market?

No sooner had Lando clinched his maiden win, than all sorts of rare and beautiful cards of his came out of the woodwork on social media. Most notably we saw a few extremely rare and sought after ‘Lando 4’ autograph cards, of which only 1 copy has ever been graded by PSA.

But does Lando’s first win genuinely give his cards any real boost? And if so, how long lasting would it be?

In the days that immediately followed Norris’ win, his market for 2020 Topps Chrome rookie cards (PSA 10) spiked, as we see here. Data courtesy of Cardladder.

In short, yes.

It’s clear from the graph above, and has been for some time in the F1 hobby, that winning can make all the difference. But winning in and of itself isn’t enough to always move the needle permanently.

After Silverstone last year we also saw a huge spike in Oscar Piastri’s market, after it become plainly obvious that both he and Lando were going to get podiums for the remainder of the season. Oscar demonstrated in that one race that he had what it took to be one of the greats, matching Norris for speed and pace, and missing out on a podium by unlucky safety car timing.

What also seperates a one-time winner in Lando Norris from say, Valtteri Bottas (a 10x Grand Prix race winner) is that Lando is still young, arguably getting better every year, and as things stand the better of the two McLaren drivers and so the more likely to win a World Championship.

Whether or not it makes sense, the market tends to extrapolate current performance linearly, meaning that what buyers are seeing now is a driver who will keep winning. However, much depends on how the constructor – in this case McLaren – can keep delivering a car capable of winning.

Lando’s rookie cards have all enjoyed a healthy spike in the immediate days after his race win in Miami.

For the moment, it does indeed look as though McLaren are capable of delivering that winning car; with each upgrade package, they are shaving off significant lap time. It’s extremely encouraging for the Woking team, who seem to have excellent correlation with what they see in their brand new wind tunnel and what they see on track.

However, before Norris collectors get ahead of themselves, a good reminder of how things can play out is to look back at George Russell’s 2022 win in Brazil and how at the time, many thought Mercedes was about to crack things wide open and challenge the following year.

2023 Topps Chrome Formula 1 George Russell Celebration Variation SP for his maiden win in Brazil, 2022.

In hindsight, it was far too soon to think Mercedes would go on and deliver a car that could carry Russell to more victories, and in the year and half since, his market has steadily declined.

Russell’s Rookie Refractor (PSA 10) sales over a 3 month period at the time of Norris’ Miami win. Data courtesy of CardLadder.

In short, from a flip and trade point of view a maiden win seems like a good time to sell, unless there is reason to believe the driver will go on to win a World Championship. McLaren certainly seem like they could challenge Red Bull for the remainder of the season, such was the power of their Miami upgrade, but it will take more than just a competitive car to beat Max, and there’s no telling how competitive McLaren will be next year, or into 2026 with the new set of regulations. That championship may never come.

Either way, Lando is beginning to fulfill his early promise, and is clearly rewarding collectors who have been hunting for his cards over the last few years.

By F1_Ben

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